Eugene Volokh picks apart Slate’s Dahlia Lithwick, and Glenn Reynolds notes that “it says a lot about modern legal thinking that a right explicitly mentioned in the Constitution can somehow be characterized as ‘new’ based solely on what the Supreme Court does.”
Indeed, the legal academy’s thoughts on the Second Amendment fit nicely with its views on property rights, economic due process, and the Fourteenth Amendment’s privileges or immunities clause.
Contrary to Hillary Clinton’s expectations, New Mexico governor Bill Richardson has endorsed Barack Obama for president. The New York Times got one Clinton adviser’s thoughts:
“An act of betrayal,” said James Carville, an adviser to Mrs. Clinton and a friend of Mr. Clinton.
“Mr. Richardson’s endorsement came right around the anniversary of the day when Judas sold out for 30 pieces of silver, so I think the timing is appropriate, if ironic,” Mr. Carville said, referring to Holy Week.
Perhaps Richardson should be placed on suicide watch.
At Freespace.
At Volokh.
[editor's note: B Misc. is proud to publish the first-ever post by a guest-blogger on this site. JT is the author of this preview and a friend of the editor. I do not endorse his views, but I do respect his thoughts. Also please do not expect previews of other divisions.]
I thank B Misc. for the opportunity to write for his up-and-coming (if not established) blog. First thing first. I’m a homer. A die hard Brewer fan, so while I am being entirely objective, I expect the bias comments. With that, on to the predictions!!!
1. Milwaukee Brewers (92 – 70)
On paper the Brewers have all the ingredients. After missing out on the playoffs last year by two games, the Brewers are fielding an improved team. The biggest weaknesses in the off-season – defense and relief pitching – were addressed. Moving NL R.O.Y. Ryan Braun to left field and Bill Hall back to his natural position at 3rd greatly improves the defense. And by all spring training accounts, both have had no trouble at their new positions. Add 4 time gold glover, Mike Cameron, to the outfield and Jason Kendall (replacing the worst catcher in baseball last year) behind the plate, and defense is solid.
Brewers pitching is good with the potential of greatness. Ben Sheets and Yovanni Gallardo provide one of the best 1-2 combos in baseball. Suppan is a traditional innings eater – ERA in 4-5 range, but will pitch 200 plus innings. At 4-5 it remains to be seen what will happen out of spring training. Two young studs have been pitching lights-out so far in spring: Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva. Villanueva, who pitched stellar last year (both in long relief and a starter late in the season), should make the team, hopefully as a starter. Parra, a lefty, pitched a perfect game in AAA last year, and has been unhittable in spring. However, the Brewers 3-4-5 pitchers from last year are still on the roster: Dave Bush, Chris Capuano, and Claudio Vargas. Bush has been a guy with “potential” for 3 years running. Capuano, a former all-star lost something like 18 games in a row last year, and Vargas is a symbol of inconsistency – pitches great, then gets lit up, though has been great in spring thus far. Most likely, either Bush, or Capuano gets traded before camp ends. Vargas gets a starting gig, and Bush/Capuano gets a long relief role. Parra then goes to AAA to start the season (to avoid a ML-contract and keep his innings down), and gets called up around the All-Star break.
At the plate, expect the Brewers to put up ridiculous numbers. Leading the way is Prince Fielder (.288/50/119) and ROY Ryan Braun (.324/34/97 – in a little over 100 games). Rickie Weeks, batting leadoff, is many experts pick for breakout year, and coming into the season healthy for the first time in his career. J.J. Hardy, an all-star last year, will hit .290 with 20-25 bombs. Corey Hart, another 25-year old, should improve on his .295/24/81 totals from last year. Mike Cameron is another 25 HR guy, and Jason Kendall, after getting eye surgery in the off-season, is hitting .350 in spring. Also for the first time in ages, the Brewers have a lot of speed in their lineup. Hart, Braun, Weeks, Tony Gwynn, and Cameron should all have over 20 SBs.
Negatives: On the pitching front there are two questions: (1) Will Sheets stay healthy and provide a full season as the team’s ace? (2) Will the bullpen of Gagne, Torres, Riske, Mota, Turnbow, and Shouse come together to close out games in a way the pen failed to last year? At the plate the Brewers will have high K totals. Can Weeks, finally healthy, live up to his hype? Can Kendall hit like he used to, or was last year just a microcosm of the end of his career?
Nevertheless, there’s too much talent maturing on this team to expect anything less than a 1st place finish.
2. Chicago Cubs (85 -77)
The Cubs are returning nearly the same team that won the NL – Central last year. There are only two changes – RF Kosuke Fukodome and C Geovanny Soto. Both are upgrades from a year ago, but expect neither to be an All-Star. The Cubs overpaid for this Japanese import, who by all accounts is cross between the Matsui’s (Hideki and Kaz), but without the power of Hideki and without the speed of Kaz. Behind the plate Soto remains a question mark. Soto tore up AAA pitching last year, but in every other minor-league season of his career, he was average. He did hit well enough in September last year though to merit his starting in playoffs, where I’m sure we all remember his bomb in game 3. I like Soto, but don’t expect great stuff from him in his first ML season.
The pitching staff for the Cubs is anchored by Carlos Zambrano. The biggest jackass in the majors. Zambrano has been consistent in his ML – career. putting up good K numbers, winning 15 games, and keeping his ERA under 4. With that said, his ERA has gone up each of the last three years, he’s coming off a contract year, and he’s bound to get into a knock-down, drag-out with Sweet Lou by the end of the season. The rest of the Cubs rotation falls somewhere in the goodish – (Lilly), okayish – (Hill) badish (Marquis) range. These three guys will pitch a good game every one in a while, will never be the ace of a rotation, will each have ERA in the 4-5 range, and each have .500 records. Dempster moves from the closer role to a fight for a spot in the rotation. He’ll have to battle Jon Lieber and Sean Marshall for the 5th spot. Marshall probably has the most talent out of the three, but expect Dempster to get the job.
The Cubs lineup is very strong at the top, and then falls off quickly. 1 – 4 should be Soriano, Fukodome, Lee, and Ramirez. Expect at least 20 HRs, and 100 RBI out of each of them. Though Lee and Soriano have dropped off a bit two years running, I wouldn’t want to pitch to the top of this lineup. It’s 5-8 where this lineup falls apart. Soto (unproven), Theriot (average), Pie (nothing special), and DeRosa (sucks). On the plus side, none of these 4 will hit below .250, but don’t expect much in the way of extra base hits.
Expect a repeat of last year for the Cubs. With an improved NL-Central though, that translates into a 2nd place team. The bullpen remains a big question mark, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wood yanked for Dempster early in the season. The Cubs probably have the best manager in the division (with LaRussa), but his fiery attitude only fires guys up for about 1.5 seasons. If the Cubs come out of the gate slow, they could blow up by the All-Star break. Conversely, if they come out of the gate hot, their consistency throughout, would make them tough to catch.
3. Cincinnati Reds (81 – 81)
Easily the most intriguing team in the division is the Reds. They really missed out in the off-season by not snagging Eric Bedard. A pitching trio of Harang, Arroyo, and Bedard, could have been the scariest in the majors. Now, they are a team at a cross-roads: Go with the young talent, or stick with the proven veterans. Jay Bruce (CF) and Joey Votto (1B) are studs in the making, but is this their year? With Dusty Baker at the helm, expect him to start with the veterans. When the team starts tanking early, expect Dusty to stay with the veterans. When the they are just about out of the race, Dusty will put in the young blood, and watch as they make a spirited run, before finally falling off at the end.
With that said, the Reds will win games because of their starting pitching. Harang is a genuine ace, and if he pitched at PetCo, would put up numbers like Peavy did last year. Despite Arroyo’s average year last year, he’s only 31, and only one year removed from pitching 240 innings and posting a 3.29 ERA. His K/BB ration is good, and any team would like him on their staff. After those two, the starters get dicey. Belisle and Fogg have career ERAs in the 5 range. Affeldt is unproven, Homer Bailey will probably start out in AAA, and Volquez will be a career middle-reliever. The bullpen is improved with CoCo, but the Reds clearly overpaid the 33-year old with a $46 million 4-year contract. Nevertheless, he will provide more stability than stormy Weathers at the back of the pen. Once again though, expect their middle-relief to get lit up.
The projected lineup is decent, but can’t stand up to the big hitters in the rest of the division. Brandon Phillips is clearly the best player in the lineup, and a repeat of last year’s monster season is likely. Adam Dunn can hit the long ball, but his career average under .250 can be a liability. Encarnacion should improve from a good 2007, that saw him hit .290 with 16 bombs. And a healthy Griffey should put up 30 more dingers. Rounding out the lineup though – Hatteberg (Votto), Gonzalez (Keppinger?), Freel (Bruce?), Ross (Valentin?/Hanigan?) — are too many question marks, to provide any stability.
The Reds are probably a year away. They need to solidify their pen, get their young studs some quality PT, and add one more arm. But it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see this team compete for a while this year.
4. St. Louis Cardinals (78 – 84)
The Cards, only two years removed a World Series ring aren’t scaring anyone. Chris Duncan, last year’s breakout candidate, doesn’t appear to be the real deal. Expect Ankiel to drop-off from his nice September, Troy Glaus is over the hill, and their pitching leaves a lot to be desired.
The rotation is led by Adam Wainwright, a genuine #1 starter. He pitched nearly 280 innings and kept his ERA at 3.61. His K/BB ration is good, not great. But he’s only 26, and should be entering his prime. After that, look out. Braden Looper, had a nice year last year, but now that the division has seen him, expect a return to his former self – a lifelong career in middle relief. Pineiro, Clement, and Reyes are simply happy to keep their ERA under 5. Isringhausen returns as closer, until he gets hurt, but he isn’t lights out anyway. The rest of the bullpen is either unproven, or proven to be poor.
The lineup led is led by Pujols, still the most feared hitter in the game. But it’s doubtful that Glaus, Duncan, and Ankiel can provide him the protection that Rolen and Edmunds did in their primes. Yadier Molina is a solid catcher, but Izturis and Kennedy are place fillers until someone better comes along. Scott Schumaker could be a solid player, but don’t expect anything great at this stage in his career.
The Cards still have Tony LaRussa, proven to be one of the best managers in the game, but I doubt he can make the Cardinals a contender in a very improved NL-Central.
5. Houston Astros (75 – 87)
This team will die from its pitching. After Oswalt you have Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, and Chris Sampson. OUCH! The bullpen upgraded with Jose Valverde, but lost Lidge, who had a nice year last year. This team will simply give up too many runs to be competitive.
The lineup, however, is really nice. Michael Bourn, a Jose Reyes in the making, could have 50 SBs this year. Kaz Matsui will probably chip in another 30 SBs. Hunter Pence, third in last year’s ROY voting, will improve, and could be an All-Star. Carlos Lee, is probably the most consistent, productive slugger around. Add Berkman (a perennial stud) and Tejada (one bad year), and they will score a lot of runs. J.R. Towles will likely be an All-Star catcher in two years, and Ty Wigginton, will blast 20+ homers. Easily the best lineup in the division. Who wants to face this: Bourn, Pence, Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Wigginton, Towles, Kaz? Answer: No one.
Nevertheless, the NL is a pitchers league, and this team has none. Lot a runs will be scored in Astros games this year – expect more from the opponenents.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92)
I feel for this team. They must have the worse GM/Owner in baseball. After years of finishing near the bottom (the Brewers used to fight them), they still have no talent – even in development!
The pitching of the Pirates isn’t that bad. Top to Bottom it may be 2nd or 3rd in the Central, but no real aces. Just 4-5 guys that could be #2 or #3 pitchers anywhere. Gorzelanny has a career 4.00 ERA, and had a nice 14-win campaign last year. He’s young, and should get a little better, but will never be great. Ian Snell, same thing, though more of a power pitcher. He should also improve on a nice 2007. Maholm is a bit worse, but he too is young, and still started 30 games last year. Matt Morris will eat innings, and get you that 4.00 ERA. Is this Zach Duke’s year? It’s supposedly coming, but the 24-year old hasn’t shown anything yet. The bullpen is a hodgepodge of nobody’s, outside of a decent closer in Matt Capps. Capps pitched well enough last year in the closer role, that the Bucs got rid of Salomen Torres. But outside of Capps, there’s nothing there.
The Bucs lineup is a worse version of their pitching staff. Their “studs” would be decent #6 or #7 hitters elsewhere. Jason Bay is decent, but only hit .247 last year. Jack Wilson only managed 12 HRs last year. Xavier Nady is capable, but .278/20/72 doesn’t strike fear in anyone. Freddy Sanchez will hit over .300 with 1-2 SBs, and 1 HR. Adam LaRoche is another Nady (.272./21/88). Nyjer Morgan is a nice young CF, but no Jay Bruce. Bautista and Paulino/Doumit are below average for their position.
Expect another down year in Pittsburgh.
Everyone pays for National Public Radio through taxes, but apparently stories from a conservative perspective fire all the listeners up. Kind of strange considering the country is essentially split down the middle politically.
Hat tip: Instapundit.
Over the past couple of months, I managed to catch a few episodes of one of my all time favorite shows, The Price is Rights. Drew Carey took over for Bob Barker. Needless to say, those are incredibly big shoes to fill. But I think Carey has not even achieved my minimal expectations. He’s not really exciting, doesn’t engage with the contestants, and just seems to be going through the motions throughout the show. Comments on a recent article on The Price is Right’s ratings confirm my feelings.
But I’m willing to be patient with Carey, especially since he is still new to the job and because he has been doing great stuff at reason.tv.
One of my favorites is the discussion on the “war” on the middle class:
Omnia omnibus: Bruce Catton’s Civil War books are “never tendentious, merciful to the losers, perceptive in the accounts of the leading men’s thoughts, and always crafted with a choice of words that makes for very elegant prose.”
